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Trend Analysis

Trend analysis calculates the percentage change for one account over a period of time of two years or more.

Percentage change

To calculate the percentage change between two periods:

  1. Calculate the amount of the increase/(decrease) for the period by subtracting the earlier year from the later year. If the difference is negative, the change is a decrease and if the difference is positive, it is an increase.

  2. Divide the change by the earlier year's balance. The result is the percentage change.

Calculation of Percentage Change

20X1

20X0

Increase/(Decrease)

Percent Change

Cash

$ 6,950

$ 6,330

$ 620

9.8%

Accounts Receivable, net

18,567

19,330

(763)

(3.9%)

Sales

129,000

103,000

26,000

25.2%

Rent Expense

10,000

0

10,000

N/M

Net Income (Loss)

8,130

(1,400)

9,530

N/M

Calculation notes:

  1. 20X0 is the earlier year so the amount in the 20X0 column is subtracted from the amount in the 20X1 column.

  2. The percent change is the increase or decrease divided by the earlier amount (20X0 in this example) times 100. Written as a formula, the percent change is:




  3. If the earliest year is zero or negative, the percent calculated will not be meaningful. N/M is used in the above table for not meaningful.

  4. Most percents are rounded to one decimal place unless more are meaningful.

  5. A small absolute dollar item may have a large percentage change and be considered misleading.

Trend percentages

To calculate the change over a longer period of time—for example, to develop a sales trend—follow the steps below:

  1. Select the base year.

  2. For each line item, divide the amount in each nonbase year by the amount in the base year and multiply by 100.

  3. In the following example, 20W7 is the base year, so its percentages (see bottom half of the following table) are all 100.0. The percentages in the other years were calculated by dividing each amount in a particular year by the corresponding amount in the base year and multiply by 100.

Calculation of Trend Percentages

20X1

20X0

20W9

20W8

20W7

Historical Data

Inventory

$ 12,309

$12,202

$12,102

$11,973

$11,743

Property & equipment

74,422

78,938

64,203

65,239

68,450

Current liabilities

27,945

30,347

27,670

28,259

26,737

Sales

129,000

97,000

95,000

87,000

81,000

Cost of goods sold

70,950

59,740

48,100

47,200

45,500

Operating expenses

42,600

38,055

32,990

29,690

27,050

Net income (loss)

8,130

(1,400)

7,869

5,093

3,812

Trend Percentages

Inventory

104.8

103.9

103.1

102.0

100.0

Property & equipment

108.7

115.3

93.8

95.3

100.0

Current liabilities

104.5

113.5

103.5

105.7

100.0

Sales

159.3

119.8

117.3

107.4

100.0

Cost of goods sold

155.9

131.3

105.7

103.7

100.0

Operating expenses

157.5

140.7

122.0

109.8

100.0

Net income (loss)

213.3

(36.7)

206.4

133.6

100.0

Calculation notes:

  1. The base year trend percentage is always 100.0%. A trend percentage of less than 100.0% means the balance has decreased below the base year level in that particular year. A trend percentage greater than 100.0% means the balance in that year has increased over the base year. A negative trend percentage represents a negative number.

  2. If the base year is zero or negative, the trend percentage calculated will not be meaningful.

In this example, the sales have increased 59.3% over the five-year period while the cost of goods sold has increased only 55.9% and the operating expenses have increased only 57.5%. The trends look different if evaluated after four years. At the end of 20X0, the sales had increased almost 20%, but the cost of goods sold had increased 31%, and the operating expenses had increased almost 41%. These 20X0 trend percentages reflect an unfavorable impact on net income because costs increased at a faster rate than sales. The trend percentages for net income appear to be higher because the base year amount is much smaller than the other balances.

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